Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A major global index provider will announce its quarterly review results on 10th February 2026. There could be tens of billions of dollars of flows during this event.</li>
<li>This insight shows our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for all 47 markets in the index universe for the upcoming rebal event.</li>
<li>The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the end of February 2026.</li>
</ul>


A major global index provider will announce its quarterly review results on 10th February 2026. There could be tens of billions of dollars of flows during this event.
This insight shows our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for all 47 markets in the index universe for the upcoming rebal event.
The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the end of February 2026.


Quiddity Predictions for the Major Global Index Rebal in Feb 2026

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a>'s rally over the last year should lead to the stock being added to a global index in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a> stock has performed in line with peers and trades at valuations that are in line with its peers.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in the stock, but it does not appear to be excessive. There could still be legs to this move higher.</li>
</ul>



Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)'s rally over the last year should lead to the stock being added to a global index in May.

Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) stock has performed in line with peers and trades at valuations that are in line with its peers.
There will be positioning in the stock, but it does not appear to be excessive. There could still be legs to this move higher.


Shimizu (1803 JP): Fairly Priced as Global Index Inclusion Looms

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.</li>
<li>
 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.</li>
<li>
 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.</li>
</ul>



 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.

 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.

 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Japan

Shimizu Corporation is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings. Shimizu also performs civil engineering works for roads and operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells and leases construction materials and machinery.

Price Gauge
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Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)

Quiddity Predictions for the Major Global Index Rebal in Feb 2026

There were 124 changes confirmed for the Feb26 rebal. We correctly predicted 108 changes which is 87% of the confirmed changes. We achieved hit...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shimizu (1803 JP): Fairly Priced as Global Index Inclusion Looms

Shimizu could be added to a global index in Feb. The stock has performed in line with its peers and trades marginally cheaper. Positioning is much...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Predictions for the Major Global Index Rebal in Feb 2026

There were 124 changes confirmed for the Feb26 rebal. We correctly predicted 108 changes which is 87% of the confirmed changes. We achieved hit...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shimizu (1803 JP): Fairly Priced as Global Index Inclusion Looms

Shimizu could be added to a global index in Feb. The stock has performed in line with its peers and trades marginally cheaper. Positioning is much...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

​Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.