Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX down 3 in a Row as  Fed Hawks out in force; Oil bucks trend ;  P&amp;G see weak sales; Musk makes it up on TESLA's self driving</li>
<li>JAPAN: Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows;  Activist ValueAct tgts S&amp;i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General Contractors at MS; Japan CPI on tap.</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Could be Nothing Burger but the costs of US default is rising as Debt Limit hit.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX down 3 in a Row as  Fed Hawks out in force; Oil bucks trend ;  P&amp;G see weak sales; Musk makes it up on TESLA's self driving
JAPAN: Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows;  Activist ValueAct tgts S&amp;i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General Contractors at MS; Japan CPI on tap.
DAILY NUGGET: Could be Nothing Burger but the costs of US default is rising as Debt Limit hit.


Good Morning Japan |Fed Hawks Return; Earnings Weigh; ValueAct Tgts S&I(3382); Spate of JP BUY U/Gs

Japan

Shimizu Corporation is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings. Shimizu also performs civil engineering works for roads and operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells and leases construction materials and machinery.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hawks Return; Earnings Weigh; ValueAct Tgts S&I(3382); Spate of JP BUY U/Gs

Fed Hawks out in full force; Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows; Activist tgts S&i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

​Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hawks Return; Earnings Weigh; ValueAct Tgts S&I(3382); Spate of JP BUY U/Gs

Fed Hawks out in full force; Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows; Activist tgts S&i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General...

Mark Chadwick

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...