'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure theme?*********************************************************************************************In this report, you will find out about what really happened with Jakarta's traffic conditions which have improved over the years but sped up during the last Governor's administration. The notion that foreign fund flow is the main determinant of the Indonesian equity market bull run is being reduced with the emergence of domestic fund house as well as the local statutory board.The unusual suspects in the Indo-Infrastructure theme are:<ol><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16494" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16494:1">Cardig Aero Services Tbk Pt (CASS IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23564" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23564:1">PT Aneka Gas Industri (AGII IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2667" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2667:1">Soechi Lines Tbk Pt (SOCI IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9513" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9513:1">Acset Indonusa Tbk Pt (ACST IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8358" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8358:1">Jaya Konstruksi Manggala (JKON IJ)</a></li></ol>They are the UNUSUAL SUSPECTS because of the small market capitalization, misunderstood business model, tightly controlled float and/or just invested by some long-term investors which mean unless there is a change of investment thesis - the investors are more than happy to just sit on the stock which means there is not much liquidity. They may well be worth looking at!

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure theme?*********************************************************************************************In this report, you will find out about what really happened with Jakarta's traffic conditions which have improved over the years but sped up during the last Governor's administration. The notion that foreign fund flow is the main determinant of the Indonesian equity market bull run is being reduced with the emergence of domestic fund house as well as the local statutory board.The unusual suspects in the Indo-Infrastructure theme are:Cardig Aero Services Tbk Pt (CASS IJ)PT Aneka Gas Industri (AGII IJ)Soechi Lines Tbk Pt (SOCI IJ)Acset Indonusa Tbk Pt (ACST IJ)Jaya Konstruksi Manggala (JKON IJ)They are the UNUSUAL SUSPECTS because of the small market capitalization, misunderstood business model, tightly controlled float and/or just invested by some long-term investors which mean unless there is a change of investment thesis - the investors are more than happy to just sit on the stock which means there is not much liquidity. They may well be worth looking at!

Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a>'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu</a>…

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are Komatsu…

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook.  However a big rotation is underway.  The "anti-reflation" call is a narrative in critical condition.  We are seeing a shift into emerging markets and the global materials sector, one with long-term implications.  Intermarket analysis give this outlook the thumbs up; see attachment for complete analysis.

Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook.  However a big rotation is underway.  The "anti-reflation" call is a narrative in critical condition.  We are seeing a shift into emerging markets and the global materials sector, one with long-term implications.  Intermarket analysis give this outlook the thumbs up; see attachment for complete analysis.

We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations for the overall market to identify which sectors and companies are currently trending up in popularity and which are trending down.<h2>Positive Side</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/022/original/2.png?1490213989" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="23022"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>As you can see from the chart above the Energy Minerals (Only 7 names in sector), Finance and Consumer Durables Sectors had the highest % of upgrades relative to total recommendations over…

We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations for the overall market to identify which sectors and companies are currently trending up in popularity and which are trending down.Positive SideSource: Custom ProductsAs you can see from the chart above the Energy Minerals (Only 7 names in sector), Finance and Consumer Durables Sectors had the highest % of upgrades relative to total recommendations over…

Most Popular and Unpopular Japanese Sectors over Last 2 Weeks....

Japan

Shimizu Corporation is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings. Shimizu also performs civil engineering works for roads and operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells and leases construction materials and machinery.

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Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure...

Henry Soediarko

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H...

Custom Products Group

International Compass

Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook. However a big rotation is underway. The "anti-reflation" call...

Vermilion Research

Most Popular and Unpopular Japanese Sectors over Last 2 Weeks....

We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations...

Custom Products Group

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