'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 15 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and seven sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 15 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and seven sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 May 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kajima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3973:1" rel="noopener">Kajima Corp (1812 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kajima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3973:1" rel="noopener">Kajima Corp (1812 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a>  targets a 9% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) vs. Kajima Corp (1812 JP) price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Kajima Corp (1812 JP) and short Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)  targets a 9% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Kajima (1812 JP) Vs Shimizu (1803 JP): Shimizu Earnings Jump Creates Three Sigma Dislocation

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure theme?*********************************************************************************************In this report, you will find out about what really happened with Jakarta's traffic conditions which have improved over the years but sped up during the last Governor's administration. The notion that foreign fund flow is the main determinant of the Indonesian equity market bull run is being reduced with the emergence of domestic fund house as well as the local statutory board.The unusual suspects in the Indo-Infrastructure theme are:<ol><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16494" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16494:1">Cardig Aero Services Tbk Pt (CASS IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23564" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23564:1">PT Aneka Gas Industri (AGII IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2667" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2667:1">Soechi Lines Tbk Pt (SOCI IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9513" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9513:1">Acset Indonusa Tbk Pt (ACST IJ)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8358" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8358:1">Jaya Konstruksi Manggala (JKON IJ)</a></li></ol>They are the UNUSUAL SUSPECTS because of the small market capitalization, misunderstood business model, tightly controlled float and/or just invested by some long-term investors which mean unless there is a change of investment thesis - the investors are more than happy to just sit on the stock which means there is not much liquidity. They may well be worth looking at!

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure theme?*********************************************************************************************In this report, you will find out about what really happened with Jakarta's traffic conditions which have improved over the years but sped up during the last Governor's administration. The notion that foreign fund flow is the main determinant of the Indonesian equity market bull run is being reduced with the emergence of domestic fund house as well as the local statutory board.The unusual suspects in the Indo-Infrastructure theme are:Cardig Aero Services Tbk Pt (CASS IJ)PT Aneka Gas Industri (AGII IJ)Soechi Lines Tbk Pt (SOCI IJ)Acset Indonusa Tbk Pt (ACST IJ)Jaya Konstruksi Manggala (JKON IJ)They are the UNUSUAL SUSPECTS because of the small market capitalization, misunderstood business model, tightly controlled float and/or just invested by some long-term investors which mean unless there is a change of investment thesis - the investors are more than happy to just sit on the stock which means there is not much liquidity. They may well be worth looking at!

Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries, Nissan Motor, Mizuho Financial, Honda Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries, Nissan Motor, Mizuho Financial, Honda Motor.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Apr): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana

Japan

Shimizu Corporation is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings. Shimizu also performs civil engineering works for roads and operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells and leases construction materials and machinery.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 May 2026)

Discover 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and seven sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kajima (1812 JP) Vs Shimizu (1803 JP): Shimizu Earnings Jump Creates Three Sigma Dislocation

9% target return in a potential pair trade as Shimizu’s post-earnings jump pushes the spread in this construction pair to a three-sigma extreme...

Gaudenz Schneider

Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure...

Henry Soediarko

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Apr): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 May 2026)

​Discover 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and seven sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kajima (1812 JP) Vs Shimizu (1803 JP): Shimizu Earnings Jump Creates Three Sigma Dislocation

9% target return in a potential pair trade as Shimizu’s post-earnings jump pushes the spread in this construction pair to a three-sigma extreme...

Gaudenz Schneider

Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects

Which companies come into your portfolio when you want to invest in Indonesian infrastructure...

Henry Soediarko

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Apr): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Discover 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and seven sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.