Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends</li>
<li>We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation</li>
<li>We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings</li>
</ul>


Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends
We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation
We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

<ul>
<li>Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.</li>
<li>The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.</li>
</ul>


Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inaba has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a> offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.</li>
<li>While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  </li>
</ul>


Inaba has bumped its Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP) offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.
The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.
While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.</li>
<li>While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.</li>
</ul>



Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. 
J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.
While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

Japan

Shizuoka Financial Group, Inc. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, fund management, domestic settlement, and other services. Shizuoka Financial Group provides its services throughout Japan.

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Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in November. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

​Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in November. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a...

Arun George

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...