Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.</li>
<li>The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.</li>
</ul>


Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inaba has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a> offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.</li>
<li>While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  </li>
</ul>


Inaba has bumped its Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP) offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.
The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.
While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.</li>
<li>While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.</li>
</ul>



Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. 
J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.
While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>'s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.</li>
<li>Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.</li>
<li>Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.</li>
</ul>


Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)'s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.


NTT Docomo's Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

Japan

Shizuoka Financial Group, Inc. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, fund management, domestic settlement, and other services. Shizuoka Financial Group provides its services throughout Japan.

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Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in November. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): Murakami Succeeds in Securing a New Tender at JPY1,350

While Inaba's offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a...

Arun George

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

NTT Docomo's Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

NTT Docomo is going to take control of Monex Group's securities business leaving Monex with a 49% interest, some cash, the TradeStation biz,...

Travis Lundy

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