HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug. </li>
<li>The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.</li>
<li>Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry's tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit. </li>
</ul>


Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug. 
The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry's tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit. 


Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)</a>’s HK$1.58 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. </li>
<li>Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.</li>
<li>The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  </li>
</ul>


The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. 
Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, CSPC Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, CSPC Pharma.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC

<ul>
<li>Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.</li>
<li>Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.</li>
<li>Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao</a>.</li>
</ul>


Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.


Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. develops and sells diversified tea beverage products, primarily through a franchise model under its 'ChaPanda' brand. The company offers a range of classic, seasonal, and regional tea drinks, and also manages supply chain, franchise operations, and related services. It was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Chengdu, People's Republic of China.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

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Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite...

Some investors may be unhappy, but Tam Jai's privatisation is attractive at HK$1.58, offering a 24% PER premium to peers. Given sector challenges,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite...

Some investors may be unhappy, but Tam Jai's privatisation is attractive at HK$1.58, offering a 24% PER premium to peers. Given sector challenges,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

​Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 9th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Beigene, Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...