Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. </li>
<li>In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.</li>
<li>Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. 
In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.
Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.


Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI (MSCI US)</a> continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.</li>
<li>MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.</li>
<li>MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, MSCI (MSCI US) continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.
MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.
MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.


MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

<ul>
<li>Singapore recently announced the pricing of its inaugural sovereign green bond issue marking Singapore's momentous entrée into the growing global sovereign green bond market.</li>
<li>Big deal, and big <em>impact</em>. Singapore's S$2.4 billion 50-year green bond ranks among the largest inaugural sovereign issuances and the proceeds are funding impactful "green projects."</li>
<li>Proceeds will fund two Clean Transportation projects (electric rail mass transit) and contribute to an 80% reduction in land transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.</li>
</ul>


Singapore recently announced the pricing of its inaugural sovereign green bond issue marking Singapore's momentous entrée into the growing global sovereign green bond market.
Big deal, and big impact. Singapore's S$2.4 billion 50-year green bond ranks among the largest inaugural sovereign issuances and the proceeds are funding impactful "green projects."
Proceeds will fund two Clean Transportation projects (electric rail mass transit) and contribute to an 80% reduction in land transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.


Singapore's Inaugural Green Bond: Big Deal, Big Impact

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Singapore Financials continue their turnaround. From a low of 0.67% in early 2021, average weights have soared to 1.81%, closing in on the highs of 2%+ in 2018</li>
<li>Clear active rotation, with the percentage of managers exposed to the sector increasing from 45.2% in 2021 to 63.4% today.</li>
<li>Strong ownership growth seen in DBS and UOB, with +10.75% and +6.45% of managers opening positions over the last 6-months.  SGX also saw ownership rise.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Singapore Financials continue their turnaround. From a low of 0.67% in early 2021, average weights have soared to 1.81%, closing in on the highs of 2%+ in 2018
Clear active rotation, with the percentage of managers exposed to the sector increasing from 45.2% in 2021 to 63.4% today.
Strong ownership growth seen in DBS and UOB, with +10.75% and +6.45% of managers opening positions over the last 6-months.  SGX also saw ownership rise.


Singapore

Singapore Exchange operates as an integrated securities and derivatives exchange, related clearing houses, and an electricity market. It is a multi-asset exchange conglomerate providing listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository, and data services across equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets. The company is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1999.

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Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Iron ore futures prices exhibit seasonality. Harnessing seasonality using SGX Iron Ore Futures delivers a success rate of 63% (positive P&L in 57...

Mint Finance

Singapore's Inaugural Green Bond: Big Deal, Big Impact

Singapore’s inaugural green bond is a big deal, in size and impact. It is one of the world’s largest debut issues and funds Clean Transportation...

Kyle Rudden

Singapore Financials: Surging Higher

Asia Ex-Japan funds ramp up Singapore Financial allocations . A key beneficiary in this year’s sector rotations, new positions have been added...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Iron ore futures prices exhibit seasonality. Harnessing seasonality using SGX Iron Ore Futures delivers a success rate of 63% (positive P&L in 57...

Mint Finance

MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

It's been rough for ESG index funds and the ESG indexers that index them. Not for MSCI, though. MSCI continues to gain market share and solidify...

Kyle Rudden

Singapore's Inaugural Green Bond: Big Deal, Big Impact

Singapore’s inaugural green bond is a big deal, in size and impact. It is one of the world’s largest debut issues and funds Clean Transportation...

Kyle Rudden

Singapore Financials: Surging Higher

Asia Ex-Japan funds ramp up Singapore Financial allocations . A key beneficiary in this year’s sector rotations, new positions have been added...

Steven Holden