Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. </li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. 


The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

David Blennerhassett

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

<ul>
<li>Following shareholder approval, there'll be an index DELetion for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>, and an index UPweight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a>. BKW's last day of trading is the 15th September. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minebea-mitsumi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5032:1" rel="noopener">Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>. That leaves this to be done by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, unopposed.</li>
<li>After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch's son Lachlan asserts control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5990:1" rel="noopener">News Corp Class B (NWS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corp-b470c4a5-c947-401c-af9f-3e6497d73406" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox (FOXA US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Following shareholder approval, there'll be an index DELetion for Brickworks (BKW AU), and an index UPweight for Soul Patts (SOL AU). BKW's last day of trading is the 15th September. 

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)'s Offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). That leaves this to be done by Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), unopposed.
After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch's son Lachlan asserts control of News Corp Class B (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).


Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> (now called Sony Financial Group Inc ("SFGI")) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (<a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/listing/stocks/new/sjcobq000002509n-att/09SonyFinancialGroup-OutlineEN.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outline</a>, <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/listing/stocks/new/sjcobq000002509n-att/09SonyFinancialGroup-1s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Securities Report</a> (J), <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/listing/stocks/new/sjcobq000002509n-att/09SonyFinancialGroup-cg.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Governance Report</a> (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.</li>
<li>The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.</li>
</ul>


The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc ("SFGI")) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.


[Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff - 'Maybe' BUYBACK Complicates Planning

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 30 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> following the spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The index committee has decided not to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric</a> to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch</a> points to sector balance.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.

BayCurrent Consulting's PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

Japan

Sony Financial Group Inc. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, banking, and other financial services. Sony Financial Group serves customers across worldwide.

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Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year (every half year) it is the same trade. Dividend reinvestment for passive funds. This September it "should" be ¥2trln+ but it will...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff - 'Maybe' BUYBACK Complicates Planning

SFGI (8729 JP) spinoff is now TSE-approved. Sony board approved last week. This is a go. Index impact mostly known. We wait on M. SFGI's TN-3 news...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

SHIFT will replace Citizen Watch in the NKY at the close on 30 Sep. Baycurrent's PAF increases from 0.5 to 1. Sony Financial will be sold on 29...

Brian Freitas

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