Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.</li>
<li>
Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality</li>
<li>
 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.</li>
</ul>



 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.

Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality

 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.


Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Jimblebar inventory drawdowns suggest Chinese mills are rotating back toward BHP’s higher-volume Pilbara blend after temporary feedstock adjustments.</li>
<li>BHP is expanding copper production while several global mining peers continue cutting guidance and struggling with operational execution pressures.</li>
<li>Markets are increasingly rewarding BHP’s scale, execution and commodity exposure through stronger earnings revisions and price target upgrades. </li>
</ul>


Jimblebar inventory drawdowns suggest Chinese mills are rotating back toward BHP’s higher-volume Pilbara blend after temporary feedstock adjustments.
BHP is expanding copper production while several global mining peers continue cutting guidance and struggling with operational execution pressures.
Markets are increasingly rewarding BHP’s scale, execution and commodity exposure through stronger earnings revisions and price target upgrades. 


The Market Repricing Around BHP May Only Be Getting Started

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

Brazil's copper champion exits a multi-year capex supercycle into an era of surging free cash flow powered by record copper prices. 4.5x EV-EBITDA...

Sameer Taneja

The Market Repricing Around BHP May Only Be Getting Started

Operational momentum, tightening copper markets and sustained earnings upgrades continue strengthening BHP’s position within the global mining sector.

Mint Finance

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

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