Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.</li>
<li>The force majeure in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> mine will take out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">700,000 tons</a> of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).</li>
<li>Copper players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> would be beneficiaries, while <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> could be significantly affected.</li>
</ul>


A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).
Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.


Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita copper-gold project, located within the metallic-rich coastal belt of northern Chile.</li><li>Spread across 19,076 hectares, the Especularita project encompasses both exploration and mining ventures, either granted or in the process of being so.</li><li>The firm further boasts rights to potentially secure full ownership of the project.</li></ul>

Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita copper-gold project, located within the metallic-rich coastal belt of northern Chile.Spread across 19,076 hectares, the Especularita project encompasses both exploration and mining ventures, either granted or in the process of being so.The firm further boasts rights to potentially secure full ownership of the project.

Southern Copper: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rate-cut-to-spur-copper-performance-in-the-short-term-to-over-10k-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:198832" rel="noopener">Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton.</a> </li>
<li>Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> are our favorite names. The <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/first-quantum-takes-small-steps-in-long-road-to-panama-mine-restart/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restart of the Cobre Panama</a> mine (although low probability) could boost <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton. 
Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.

Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) are our favorite names. The restart of the Cobre Panama mine (although low probability) could boost First Quantum Minerals (FM CN).


Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

<ul>
<li>Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.</li>
<li>We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.</li>
<li>Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.</li>
</ul>


Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.


Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. </li>
<li>While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.</li>
</ul>


The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.
Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. 
While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

We expect the Force Majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia of FCX to result in copper prices breaching the $ 5/lb mark and rallying further. We...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita...

Baptista Research

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

Copper looks all set to break the 10,000 USD/ton barrier in the short-term. We highlight our top picks to play the bullish copper trade.

Sameer Taneja

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

Copper has a new catalyst in anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. We believe that despite the high inventories, there is a good short-term setup for...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) is outperforming its peers based on improvements in production and costs. Coupled with a strong pricing environment for...

Sameer Taneja

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