Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.</li>
<li>Positive Q1 FY25 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>, and <a target="_blank">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.</li>
</ul>


China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.


Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> reported their Q1 results, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> reported their first quarter updates. </li>
<li>Due to the base effect, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates. 
Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

<ul>
<li>The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.</li>
<li>Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.</li>
<li>The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.</li>
</ul>


The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.


Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

<ul>
<li>Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.</li>
<li>Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.</li>
<li>Coupled with weaker supply (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.
Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 


Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. </li>
<li>Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.</li>
<li>A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.


Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

We maintain a bullish stance on copper, as China's March TSF data suggests a push for more stimulus. Additionally, rising COMEX spreads and the...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

We provide updates from the Q1 operational update of Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Q1 FY25 results of First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), both of which are...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

After the shocks of the Trump Tariffs which threatened to transition the world into a global recession, green shoots are emerging for copper with...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

We highlight key drivers for the copper price that could potentially take it over 10k USD/ton in the medium term: China stimulus, copper spreads,...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post...

Arun George

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