Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  </li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.


Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.</li>
<li>Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. </li>
<li>Antofagasta's valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.</li>
</ul>



Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.
Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. 
Antofagasta's valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.</li><li>On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.</li><li>Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.</li></ul>

Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.

Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.</li>
<li>Management believes the ICC's five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).</li>
</ul>


Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.
Management believes the ICC's five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Better Than Expected Results, But Cobre Panama Arbitration Delayed

<ul>
<li>Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.</li>
<li>The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.</li>
<li>We favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.
The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.
We favor Southern Copper (SCCO US)  and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.


Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

We summarize all the major drivers of the copper price over the last two weeks. With the China NPC approaching, all eyes will be on the fiscal...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reported H1 an impressive set of H1 results. We summarize the presentation and our gleanings of the conference call with...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and...

Baptista Research

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Better Than Expected Results, But Cobre Panama Arbitration Delayed

This summary highlights the key points from First Quantum Minerals' FY24 conference call and an analysis of the upside, status, and timeline...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

The COMEX spread has risen to a 12-week high, approaching $1,000 per ton. With an improved outlook for China, short-term gains in copper prices are...

Sameer Taneja

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