Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.</li>
<li>Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.</li>
<li>Coupled with weaker supply (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.
Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 


Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

<ul>
<li>Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  </li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.


Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.</li><li>On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.</li><li>Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.</li></ul>

Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.

Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

<ul>
<li>Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.</li>
<li>The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.</li>
<li>We favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.
The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.
We favor Southern Copper (SCCO US)  and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.


Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

<ul>
<li>Copper prices finished up over 9000 USD/ton again this week after hovering around 3-5% of that level for close to a month. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread has reached a 10-week high, while the Yangshan premium shows signs of investor bullishness as it closes in on the 80 USD/ton. </li>
<li>With better TSF numbers from China and a slightly more optimistic picture of demand, we head into 2025 feeling better about copper pricing. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices finished up over 9000 USD/ton again this week after hovering around 3-5% of that level for close to a month. 
The COMEX spread has reached a 10-week high, while the Yangshan premium shows signs of investor bullishness as it closes in on the 80 USD/ton. 
With better TSF numbers from China and a slightly more optimistic picture of demand, we head into 2025 feeling better about copper pricing. 


Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

We highlight key drivers for the copper price that could potentially take it over 10k USD/ton in the medium term: China stimulus, copper spreads,...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

We summarize all the major drivers of the copper price over the last two weeks. With the China NPC approaching, all eyes will be on the fiscal...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

Southern Copper Corporation's third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and...

Baptista Research

Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

The COMEX spread has risen to a 12-week high, approaching $1,000 per ton. With an improved outlook for China, short-term gains in copper prices are...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?

We highlight the expanding bullish spreads of COMEX and Yangshan for copper. We highlight the bullish narrative and provide updates on stocks in...

Sameer Taneja

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