Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). </li>
<li>Our recent picks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ero-copper-corp-ero-us-ero-cn-update-q2-fy26-results-cash-inflection-confirmed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:262650" rel="noopener">Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
<li>We also like bellwethers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). 
Our recent picks Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed /Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 
We also like bellwethers like Lundin Mining (LUN CN) / Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

<ul>
<li>FY25 delivered record revenue of US$13.4B (+17% YoY), EBITDA of US$7.87B at a 58% margin, and net income of US$4.34B (+28% YoY), driven by average LME copper of US$4.51/lb (+9%).</li>
<li>SCCO holds 51.1mmt in copper reserves — the largest of any listed company and a US$20.5B organic growth program targeting 1.6mt of copper output by 2035 (+68% vs 2025A).</li>
<li>In our base case, the stock trades at 13.8x EV-EBITDA, and any further correction presents an opportunity to explore as an investment. </li>
</ul>


FY25 delivered record revenue of US$13.4B (+17% YoY), EBITDA of US$7.87B at a 58% margin, and net income of US$4.34B (+28% YoY), driven by average LME copper of US$4.51/lb (+9%).
SCCO holds 51.1mmt in copper reserves — the largest of any listed company and a US$20.5B organic growth program targeting 1.6mt of copper output by 2035 (+68% vs 2025A).
In our base case, the stock trades at 13.8x EV-EBITDA, and any further correction presents an opportunity to explore as an investment. 


Southern Copper Correction Provides An Opportunity

<ul>
<li>As 24 States file lawsuits to challenge the legality of the newly imposed 10% under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, led to negative sentiment on the Comex. </li>
<li>Spreads with LME have turned negative after Trump's tariffs under IEEPA were rescinded, throwing doubt on future copper tariffs, and recently, small destocking on the exchange has been observed</li>
<li>Although the dollar and Comex leg of the bullish copper argument are no longer in play, supply-demand fundamentals still remain strong. </li>
</ul>


As 24 States file lawsuits to challenge the legality of the newly imposed 10% under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, led to negative sentiment on the Comex. 
Spreads with LME have turned negative after Trump's tariffs under IEEPA were rescinded, throwing doubt on future copper tariffs, and recently, small destocking on the exchange has been observed
Although the dollar and Comex leg of the bullish copper argument are no longer in play, supply-demand fundamentals still remain strong. 


Copper: Comex Spread Unwind On Trump Tariff Implosion

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.</li>
<li>We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.
We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)


Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>The US government launched <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-stockpile-critical-minerals-reserve-project-vault.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Vault, </a>an initiative to stockpile 12 bn USD worth of critical minerals, and copper was included in the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/science-snippet/interior-department-releases-final-2025-list-critical-minerals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USGS</a> list.</li>
<li>We believe this would embolden traders to also stockpile on the COMEX, where inventory levels are almost approaching 600k tons (&gt;25% of US demand). </li>
<li>Long-Term, we are bullish on copper, but the short-term stockpile trade is now back in vogue. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


The US government launched Project Vault, an initiative to stockpile 12 bn USD worth of critical minerals, and copper was included in the USGS list.
We believe this would embolden traders to also stockpile on the COMEX, where inventory levels are almost approaching 600k tons (&gt;25% of US demand). 
Long-Term, we are bullish on copper, but the short-term stockpile trade is now back in vogue. We like Southern Copper (SCCO US) / Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Launch of Project Vault to Change Short-Term: Copper Back to 14k USD/Ton In Play

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

With copper now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, we provide a list of our top sector picks, along with updates on the market and its current drivers.

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper Correction Provides An Opportunity

SCCO: world's largest Cu reserves, 58% EBITDA margins, lowest on the cash cost curve: leveraged to a growing copper demand market.

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Comex Spread Unwind On Trump Tariff Implosion

We provide commentary on the copper price and our constructive view on the metal. We also highlight our top picks and provide links to our detailed...

Sameer Taneja

Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Thursday pre-market International Compass report: Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, and...

Vermilion Research

Launch of Project Vault to Change Short-Term: Copper Back to 14k USD/Ton In Play

The US launch of Project Vault (USD 12bn critical-mineral stockpile) last week materially shifts the near‑term copper outlook to extremely bullish....

Sameer Taneja

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