Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

<ul>
<li>The US administration's addition of copper to the<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-expands-us-critical-minerals-list-include-copper-metallurgical-coal-2025-11-06/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> critical minerals list, </a>with a likelihood of a blanket 15% levy, has widened the spread between COMEX and LME once again. </li>
<li>Earlier, Trump had destroyed the spread in July by backtracking on the 50% tariff on copper, limiting it to value-added (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comex-spread-destroyed-by-trump-long-term-copper-still-great" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:196967" rel="noopener">COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great).</a> </li>
<li>We are bullish on copper. Recent supply shocks will push prices upwards to 12k USD/ton by year-end (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a> )</li>
</ul>


The US administration's addition of copper to the critical minerals list, with a likelihood of a blanket 15% levy, has widened the spread between COMEX and LME once again. 
Earlier, Trump had destroyed the spread in July by backtracking on the 50% tariff on copper, limiting it to value-added (see: COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great). 
We are bullish on copper. Recent supply shocks will push prices upwards to 12k USD/ton by year-end (Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton )


Comex-LME Trade Back In The Spotlight, Spread To Widen Again

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Southern Copper Corporation's third quarter and nine-month results for 2025 present a nuanced picture of the company's financial and operational status.</li><li>The company marked notable achievements with record net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income for the quarter, underscoring effective strategic execution and favorable market conditions.</li><li>The boosts in these financials were substantially driven by increased production of by-products like zinc, silver, and molybdenum, and elevated metal prices.</li></ul>

Southern Copper Corporation's third quarter and nine-month results for 2025 present a nuanced picture of the company's financial and operational status.The company marked notable achievements with record net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income for the quarter, underscoring effective strategic execution and favorable market conditions.The boosts in these financials were substantially driven by increased production of by-products like zinc, silver, and molybdenum, and elevated metal prices.

Southern Copper’s BIG Move: How Tia Maria Is Transforming Peru’s Mining Future!

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.</li>
<li>Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.</li>
<li>A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.
Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.
A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.


Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)