Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Southern Copper Corporation's latest financial performance offers a complex landscape for potential investors, characterized by both robust growth and emerging challenges.</li><li>The company achieved unprecedented figures in net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income in 2025, underlined by a significant rise in by-product production and improved metal prices, particularly for copper, zinc, silver, and molybdenum.</li><li>On the positive side, Southern Copper reported record net sales of $13.4 billion, up 17% from 2024, largely attributed to increased production volumes and improved prices across its product portfolio.</li></ul>

Southern Copper Corporation's latest financial performance offers a complex landscape for potential investors, characterized by both robust growth and emerging challenges.The company achieved unprecedented figures in net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income in 2025, underlined by a significant rise in by-product production and improved metal prices, particularly for copper, zinc, silver, and molybdenum.On the positive side, Southern Copper reported record net sales of $13.4 billion, up 17% from 2024, largely attributed to increased production volumes and improved prices across its product portfolio.

Southern Copper’s $20 Billion Expansion Plan—and Why the Market Is Watching Tia Maria Closely!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3341633/chinas-gold-fever-sparks-us1-billion-scandal-trading-platform-collapses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JWR platform collapse</a> prompted widespread liquidation of gold and silver in China, as investors feared similar platform failures could affect their bullion investments. Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised margins.</li>
<li>The announcement of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c1af439-a1a1-4684-b27e-21a527abe676" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kevin Warsh's nomination</a>, who is generally viewed as a hawk, also compounded fears of a dollar comeback and weaker metal pricing.</li>
<li>While we are constructive on copper in the long term and see 14,000 USD/ton within reach, we see a decent short-term correction in the metal this month. </li>
</ul>


The JWR platform collapse prompted widespread liquidation of gold and silver in China, as investors feared similar platform failures could affect their bullion investments. Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised margins.
The announcement of Kevin Warsh's nomination, who is generally viewed as a hawk, also compounded fears of a dollar comeback and weaker metal pricing.
While we are constructive on copper in the long term and see 14,000 USD/ton within reach, we see a decent short-term correction in the metal this month. 


Copper Great Long-Term, But Short-Term Retrace To 12k USD/Ton Or Lower

<ul>
<li>Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bhp-abandons-anglo-american-approach-says-own-growth-plan-compelling-2025-11-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP-Anglo merger </a>was followed by the successful <a href="https://www.angloamerican.com/investors/anglo-american-teck-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anglo-Teck</a> merger and, more recently, the revived <a href="https://www.afr.com/rich-list/ivan-glasenberg-s-wealth-tops-21b-on-rio-glencore-mega-merger-talks-20260114-p5ntvp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio-Glencore merger</a> talks.</li>
<li>Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.</li>
<li>Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.</li>
</ul>


Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed BHP-Anglo merger was followed by the successful Anglo-Teck merger and, more recently, the revived Rio-Glencore merger talks.
Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.
Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.


Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

<ul>
<li>Copper ended the week having breached 13,000 USD/ton in the cash market. We elaborated on this in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaks-12k-usd-ton-move-to-13k-usd-ton-by-early-next-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215539" rel="noopener">Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year</a> </li>
<li>Prior to this, we highlighted supply issues in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-mine-by-mine-supply-challenges-for-everyone-update-as-copper-is-set-to-break-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215345" rel="noopener">Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton</a> </li>
<li>We now see a revision in earnings upwards for the equities, which we will touch upon here, our favorites being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper ended the week having breached 13,000 USD/ton in the cash market. We elaborated on this in Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year 
Prior to this, we highlighted supply issues in Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton 
We now see a revision in earnings upwards for the equities, which we will touch upon here, our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) / Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Breaks 13,000 USD/Ton, Upgrades To Equities To Gain Momentum

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Southern Copper’s $20 Billion Expansion Plan—and Why the Market Is Watching Tia Maria Closely!

Southern Copper Corporation's latest financial performance offers a complex landscape for potential investors, characterized by both robust growth...

Baptista Research

Copper Great Long-Term, But Short-Term Retrace To 12k USD/Ton Or Lower

Platform collapse and Chinese curbs on speculative trading, combined with Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Fed, heighten the risk of a near‑term...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

The pursuit of critical minerals by corporations and countries (China, USA) is driving animal spirits in the copper market. We highlight our top...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Breaks 13,000 USD/Ton, Upgrades To Equities To Gain Momentum

Copper has surpassed $13,000/ton. Our analysis indicates consensus lags with ~$11,500/ton assumed for Southern Copper FY26 earnings, and we see...

Sameer Taneja

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