European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.</li>
<li>The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).</li>
<li>Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.</li>
</ul>


Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.


Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

<ul>
<li>High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.</li>
<li>Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).</li>
</ul>


High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.
Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.
Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).


Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for F100 and four regular changes for the F250 index during the December 2025 rebal.</li>
<li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for F100 and four regular changes for the F250 index during the December 2025 rebal.
The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: New ADDs Identified; Several M&A-Related Changes Likely

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shawbrook-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22139:1" rel="noopener">Shawbrook (SHAW LN)</a>, the biggest UK IPO of the year, is expected to be included in UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£2bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a> transferred its listing to the Main Market resulting in its anticipated addition to UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£1.8bn.</li>
<li>Princes Group (PRN LN) is anticipated to be included in UK 250 and All-Share following its IPO in November at a market cap of ~£1bn.</li>
</ul>



Shawbrook (SHAW LN), the biggest UK IPO of the year, is expected to be included in UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£2bn.

Pan African Resources (PAF LN) transferred its listing to the Main Market resulting in its anticipated addition to UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£1.8bn.
Princes Group (PRN LN) is anticipated to be included in UK 250 and All-Share following its IPO in November at a market cap of ~£1bn.


UK Index Dec25 Forecast: Largest UK IPO of the Year Among Inclusions

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index <em>prior to</em> the December 2025 rebal and then four more after the rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there <em>could be</em> no regular changes for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2025 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We see four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the December 2025 rebal and then four more after the rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be no regular changes for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2025 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: Solid Lineup of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes

United Kingdom

Spectris plc manufactures, designs and markets products for the electronic control and process instrumentation sectors.  The Company's products include digital indication and control products, industrial computer circuit boards, semiconductor related devices, infrared equipment for temperature measurement, flying controls, gas analysis products, and analytical x-ray systems.

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Spectris PLC (SXS LN)

Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Advent's firm offer for Spectris, now challenged by KKR's renewed interest, creates an active event-driven setup with low execution risk and rising...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Advent’s £3.7B bid for Spectris offers 85% premium; board support, modest spread, and low antitrust risk create a compelling short-term arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UK Index Dec25 Forecast: Largest UK IPO of the Year Among Inclusions

Shawbrook’s IPO and Pan African Resources’ listing transfer are expected to result in the largest UK index additions forecasted for December 2025.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: Solid Lineup of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from our Leaderboard could outperform the F250 index over the next few weeks due to intra-review index addition...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Advent's firm offer for Spectris, now challenged by KKR's renewed interest, creates an active event-driven setup with low execution risk and rising...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Advent’s £3.7B bid for Spectris offers 85% premium; board support, modest spread, and low antitrust risk create a compelling short-term arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: New ADDs Identified; Several M&A-Related Changes Likely

The base date for the December 2025 review is Tuesday 2nd December 2025. The index changes could be publicly confirmed after market close on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Index Dec25 Forecast: Largest UK IPO of the Year Among Inclusions

Shawbrook’s IPO and Pan African Resources’ listing transfer are expected to result in the largest UK index additions forecasted for December 2025.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: Solid Lineup of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from our Leaderboard could outperform the F250 index over the next few weeks due to intra-review index addition...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA