European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.</li>
<li>The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).</li>
<li>Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.</li>
</ul>


Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.


Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hino-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2144:1" rel="noopener">Hino (7205 JP)</a> a short or a long at ¥366/share? Suggest short, but also selling more as the stock goes up, and buying back the short on big dips.</li>
<li>A Bloomberg op-ed piece concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion on the Hong Kong peg appears presumptuous. And uninformed.</li>
<li>A spin-off makes sense as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin (2899 HK)</a> capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However,  Zijin is trading at a single-digit NAV discount. Before any holding company discount.</li>
</ul>


Is Hino (7205 JP) a short or a long at ¥366/share? Suggest short, but also selling more as the stock goes up, and buying back the short on big dips.
A Bloomberg op-ed piece concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion on the Hong Kong peg appears presumptuous. And uninformed.
A spin-off makes sense as Zijin (2899 HK) capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However,  Zijin is trading at a single-digit NAV discount. Before any holding company discount.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong's Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

<ul>
<li>High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.</li>
<li>Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).</li>
</ul>


High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.
Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.
Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).


Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> raised around US$751m in its Japan IPO. Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.</li>
<li>Rigaku’s diverse product portfolio caters to a broad range of end industries which does provide it some insulation from the demand cyclicality of some markets.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$751m in its Japan IPO. Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
Rigaku’s diverse product portfolio caters to a broad range of end industries which does provide it some insulation from the demand cyclicality of some markets.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Rigaku IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t as Hot as Tokyo Metro but Still Decent

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$756m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we look at Rigaku’s valuation at the final indicative range.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise up to US$756m in its Japan IPO.
Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we look at Rigaku’s valuation at the final indicative range.


Rigaku Holdings IPO - Upside Remains Attractive

United Kingdom

Spectris plc is a British multinational engineering company that specializes in providing advanced measurement and testing solutions. The company develops and supplies scientific instruments, high-precision sensing solutions, and software for industrial and scientific applications, serving sectors such as life sciences, pharmaceuticals, technology-led industrials, electronics, semiconductors, and automotive. Spectris is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1915.

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Spectris (SXS LN)

Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Advent's firm offer for Spectris, now challenged by KKR's renewed interest, creates an active event-driven setup with low execution risk and rising...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong's Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Advent’s £3.7B bid for Spectris offers 85% premium; board support, modest spread, and low antitrust risk create a compelling short-term arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rigaku IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t as Hot as Tokyo Metro but Still Decent

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$751m in its Japan IPO. Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific...

Clarence Chu

Rigaku Holdings IPO - Upside Remains Attractive

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise up to US$756m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we look at Rigaku’s valuation at the final indicative...

Clarence Chu

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