Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield and GIC took a peek behind the curtains and firmed terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>. Clean deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> will get done at some price, though not necessarily at ¥1,710/share. You'd want to own Raksul at ¥1,710/share.</li>
<li>Further inquiries suggest CDH likely controls ~18% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>. This should not be up for debate. </li>
</ul>


Brookfield and GIC took a peek behind the curtains and firmed terms for National Storage REIT (NSR AU). Clean deal.

Raksul Inc (4384 JP) will get done at some price, though not necessarily at ¥1,710/share. You'd want to own Raksul at ¥1,710/share.
Further inquiries suggest CDH likely controls ~18% of ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK). This should not be up for debate. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: National Storage, Raksul, ANE Cayman, Strategy, Broadmedia, Austal

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfort-systems-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6730:1" rel="noopener">Comfort Systems USA (FIX US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pure-storage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27421:1" rel="noopener">Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solstice-advanced-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45953:1" rel="noopener">Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US)</a> face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> which is still pending.</li>
</ul>



CRH (CRH US) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of Kellogg Co (K US) which is still pending.


S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

<ul>
<li>The $25.6bn acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interpublic-group-of-companies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8544:1" rel="noopener">Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group (OMC US)</a> may close by 11 September, with a possible extension if the merger is delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH plc (CRH US)</a> is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of IPG in S&amp;P500, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheniere-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16683:1" rel="noopener">Cheniere Energy (LNG US)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH plc (CRH US)</a> regained eligibility after reporting positive quarterly earnings in August.</li>
</ul>


The $25.6bn acquisition of Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) by Omnicom Group (OMC US) may close by 11 September, with a possible extension if the merger is delayed.

CRH plc (CRH US) is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of IPG in S&amp;P500, followed by Cheniere Energy (LNG US).

CRH plc (CRH US) regained eligibility after reporting positive quarterly earnings in August.


CRH (CRH US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Positive Earnings and Omnicom–Interpublic Merger

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update. </li>
<li>They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent &gt;50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT...</li>
<li>And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strategy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Strategy (MSTR US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metaplanet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2130:1" rel="noopener">Metaplanet (3350 JP)</a> are obvious targets. Others will be too. </li>
</ul>


Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update. 
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent &gt;50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT...
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US)  and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too. 


[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

United States

Strategy Inc operates a bitcoin treasury company. The Company offers an equity and fixed income instruments to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin, as well as develops enterprise analytics software to explore improvement in bitcoin applications. Strategy serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Strategy (MSTR US)

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin dropped to $60k early today marking a 50% decline in 3 months. Strategy's MNAV is now below 1. Although not required to start selling its...

David Mudd

Last Week In Event SPACE: National Storage, Raksul, ANE Cayman, Strategy, Broadmedia, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CRH (CRH US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Positive Earnings and Omnicom–Interpublic Merger

After multiple extensions since September, Omnicom now confidently expects to complete its acquisition of Interpublic by the end of November, as...

Dimitris Ioannidis

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M* announced a Digital Asset Treasury Company consultation in late August. Friday they extended the consultation. I expect it...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin dropped to $60k early today marking a 50% decline in 3 months. Strategy's MNAV is now below 1. Although not required to start selling its...

David Mudd

Last Week In Event SPACE: National Storage, Raksul, ANE Cayman, Strategy, Broadmedia, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

​CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CRH (CRH US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Positive Earnings and Omnicom–Interpublic Merger

After multiple extensions since September, Omnicom now confidently expects to complete its acquisition of Interpublic by the end of November, as...

Dimitris Ioannidis

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M* announced a Digital Asset Treasury Company consultation in late August. Friday they extended the consultation. I expect it...

Travis Lundy

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...