Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's Nikkei rose +3.6% this week, led by companies supplying copper foil, optical fibre and semiconductors directly into AI data centre buildouts.</li>
<li>The rally is backed by real earnings: double-digit profit growth, raised guidance and dividend hikes across materials and components makers serving AI infrastructure. </li>
<li>Rising copper and gold prices are boosting earnings forecasts for miners while reinforcing a multi-year supply constraint narrative for materials suppliers serving electrification and AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Nikkei rose +3.6% this week, led by companies supplying copper foil, optical fibre and semiconductors directly into AI data centre buildouts.
The rally is backed by real earnings: double-digit profit growth, raised guidance and dividend hikes across materials and components makers serving AI infrastructure. 
Rising copper and gold prices are boosting earnings forecasts for miners while reinforcing a multi-year supply constraint narrative for materials suppliers serving electrification and AI infrastructure.


Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Blackstone has raised $1.2 billion to support Neysa, an AI data center startup based in India.</li><li>Sumitomo Forestry is moving forward with a $4.5 billion acquisition of the US homebuilder Tri Pointe.</li><li>Brookfield is considering a $318 million investment in an office property located in Sydney, Australia.</li></ul>

Blackstone has raised $1.2 billion to support Neysa, an AI data center startup based in India.Sumitomo Forestry is moving forward with a $4.5 billion acquisition of the US homebuilder Tri Pointe.Brookfield is considering a $318 million investment in an office property located in Sydney, Australia.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Feb-2026): Blackstone invests $1.2B in Indian AI Data Centre startup.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8</li>
<li>Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.</li>
<li>A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability</li>
</ul>


Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8
Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.
A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability


Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>This insight recommends a basket of Asian-listed base metal producers.</li>
<li>Base metals, especially Copper, have a high probability of moving much higher as the AI race continues</li>
<li>We prefer to invest in the materials needed for the  building out of AI infrastructure  </li>
</ul>


This insight recommends a basket of Asian-listed base metal producers.
Base metals, especially Copper, have a high probability of moving much higher as the AI race continues
We prefer to invest in the materials needed for the  building out of AI infrastructure  


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices # 2

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...

Mark Chadwick

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Feb-2026): Blackstone invests $1.2B in Indian AI Data Centre startup.

Blackstone has raised $1.2 billion for Indian AI startup Neysa, while Sumitomo Forestry plans to buy Tri Pointe for $4.5 billion, and Brookfield...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices # 2

Copper trading above $6/lb - a new ALL TIME HIGH. As we wrote here, $5 is the new floor. Spec positioning in futures close to levels signalling...

Rikki Malik

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Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

​Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...

Mark Chadwick

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Feb-2026): Blackstone invests $1.2B in Indian AI Data Centre startup.

Blackstone has raised $1.2 billion for Indian AI startup Neysa, while Sumitomo Forestry plans to buy Tri Pointe for $4.5 billion, and Brookfield...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

​Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices # 2

Copper trading above $6/lb - a new ALL TIME HIGH. As we wrote here, $5 is the new floor. Spec positioning in futures close to levels signalling...

Rikki Malik

Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...