Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

<ul>
<li>Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.</li>
<li>Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.</li>
<li>For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.</li>
</ul>


Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.


Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness</li>
<li>The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact</li>
<li>Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world</li>
</ul>


While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness
The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact
Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world


Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.

Rahul Jain

Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

Both Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) and MMG (1208.HK) continue to perform very well. A big laggard here is Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.JP). Name ...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

​Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.

Rahul Jain

Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

Both Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) and MMG (1208.HK) continue to perform very well. A big laggard here is Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.JP). Name ...

Rikki Malik

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Silver's rally driven by record industrial demand and investor flows, with Japan's Dowa Holdings offering unique exposure to primary silver mining.