Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, Cathay Pacific (293 HK) gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.
Preceding my comments on Cathay and Swire Pacific (19 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>And on the 6th Day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> commenced its buyback. </li>
<li>It took until the 6th day for Swire to start its buyback, and now that it has started, we may have a little better idea of the parameters. And impact. </li>
<li>So far, they appear to be bending the rules a little, but it is still the way it should be. So there is still a trade here to do.</li>
</ul>


And on the 6th Day, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) commenced its buyback. 
It took until the 6th day for Swire to start its buyback, and now that it has started, we may have a little better idea of the parameters. And impact. 
So far, they appear to be bending the rules a little, but it is still the way it should be. So there is still a trade here to do.


Swire Buyback Update - It's On, and Regulatorily Constrained

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recent discrimination incident will likely affect traffic recovery pace of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> negatively if it turns into a full-scale boycott by mainland passengers.</li>
<li>The scenario of CX becoming majority-owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is getting increasingly possible. This may not be totally positive to CX given CA's weaker service ranking.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts now look somewhat bullish following the incident, and the stock's 0.7x P/B does not stand out as attractive relative to history or ROE (7% in FY25F).</li>
</ul>


The recent discrimination incident will likely affect traffic recovery pace of Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) negatively if it turns into a full-scale boycott by mainland passengers.
The scenario of CX becoming majority-owned by Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is getting increasingly possible. This may not be totally positive to CX given CA's weaker service ranking.
Consensus forecasts now look somewhat bullish following the incident, and the stock's 0.7x P/B does not stand out as attractive relative to history or ROE (7% in FY25F).


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 26th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 26th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 26th): Tencent, AIA, CK Asset

Hong Kong

Swire Pacific Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in the real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses.

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Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)

StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

I still like Swire Pac at 0.33x P/B, but it's had a great run after the buyback. If you had the trade on - long Swire Pac, Short Prop - I'd look to...

David Blennerhassett

Swire Buyback Update - It's On, and Regulatorily Constrained

Swire Pacific has started its buyback. The rules suggest they are constrained to buying 77 or Swire B shares for every 23 Swire As bought. They are...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

If the discount to NAV was warranted before this latest news, then Swire is a clear buy - there is no justification for assigning a similar...

David Blennerhassett

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Hard Landing

The recent iscrimination incident is likely to weigh on near-term traffic recovery while the increasingly possible scenario of CX becoming majority...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 26th): Tencent, AIA, CK Asset

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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