Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google</li>
<li>AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race</li>
<li>Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected</li>
</ul>


Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges</li>
<li>A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC</li>
<li>SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges
A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC
SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity. </li>
<li>For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'</a>s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.</li>
</ul>


TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity. 
For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

​Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

​TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

​TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.

Patrick Liao

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.