Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. </li>
<li>Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? </li>
<li>Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. </li>
</ul>


From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 


Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Historically High Short Interest in the Local Begins to Drop?</li>
<li>ASE: -0.4% Discount; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium</li>
<li>UMC: +0.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Historically High Short Interest in the Local Begins to Drop?
ASE: -0.4% Discount; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium
UMC: +0.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Our model recently signaled that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is overbought. Strangely, it is overbought on the TIME model but not on the PRICE model, a bearish divergence.</li>
<li>On Friday Trump announced that next week he will slap 300% import tariffs on semiconductors imports. TSMC has factories in the United States so in theory it's exempt.</li>
<li>South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines' semiconductor industries are going to be affected the most, leaving TSMC in a very good position BUT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> IS OVERBOUGHT and will pulback soon.
</li>
</ul>


Our model recently signaled that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is overbought. Strangely, it is overbought on the TIME model but not on the PRICE model, a bearish divergence.
On Friday Trump announced that next week he will slap 300% import tariffs on semiconductors imports. TSMC has factories in the United States so in theory it's exempt.
South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines' semiconductor industries are going to be affected the most, leaving TSMC in a very good position BUT TSMC IS OVERBOUGHT and will pulback soon.



TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> disclosed Board of Directors meeting resolutions today.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue.</li>
<li>Currently, only TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have achieved trial production at the 2nm node.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) disclosed Board of Directors meeting resolutions today.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue.
Currently, only TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have achieved trial production at the 2nm node.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

<ul>
<li>Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.</li>
<li>Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.</li>
<li>Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.</li>
</ul>


Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.
Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.
Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

​MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

​Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

​Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...