Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?</li>
<li>The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk


Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company</li>
<li>They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip</li>
<li>They're not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let's see</li>
</ul>


Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
They're not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let's see


Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.</li><li>SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.</li><li>China's tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.</li></ul>

Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.China's tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)</li>
<li>Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.</li>
</ul>


CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)
Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  
The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.


Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.</li>
<li>Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.</li>
<li>The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.</li>
</ul>


Despite the chip market's 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry's historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
The US' trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.


What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

Four former Intel board members yesterday warned against having TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the topic of Intel....

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

January 2025 notebook shipment update; Dassault Systèmes CEO comments on European automakers, SK Hynix achieves 70% yield in HBM4 testing, China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve

CEO anticipates strong demand growth with significant investments in data centers. AI models are improving with increased computing power. Stock...

Nicolas Baratte

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

Four former Intel board members yesterday warned against having TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the topic of Intel....

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

January 2025 notebook shipment update; Dassault Systèmes CEO comments on European automakers, SK Hynix achieves 70% yield in HBM4 testing, China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve

​CEO anticipates strong demand growth with significant investments in data centers. AI models are improving with increased computing power. Stock...

Nicolas Baratte

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

​The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...

Jim Handy

CEO anticipates strong demand growth with significant investments in data centers. AI models are improving with increased computing power. Stock...

The chip market saw 19% 2024 growth driven by AI semiconductors, but growth outside AI is modest. This is cause for concern. Meanwhile US trade...