Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.</li><li>CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.</li><li>Meredot's technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan's Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.</li></ul>

Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.Meredot's technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan's Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  </li>
<li>Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   
Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  
Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.


Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.</li>
<li>Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.</li>
<li>Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.
Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.
Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.


Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) Q1 2024 earnings presented several key details about the firm's current market standing and future performance.</li><li>For Q1 2024, they reported a 5.3% sequential decrease in revenue due to the impact of smartphone seasonality despite strong demand in high-performance computing (HPC).</li><li>Gross margin was also up to 53.1%, reflecting product mix changes, and the firm's operating margin increased to 42%.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) Q1 2024 earnings presented several key details about the firm's current market standing and future performance.For Q1 2024, they reported a 5.3% sequential decrease in revenue due to the impact of smartphone seasonality despite strong demand in high-performance computing (HPC).Gross margin was also up to 53.1%, reflecting product mix changes, and the firm's operating margin increased to 42%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Significant Artificial Intelligence (AI) Opportunities & The Returns That Lie Ahead! - Major Drivers

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.

Geopolitical shifts affect Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments; CHPT anticipates increased probe card orders, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making. Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Significant Artificial Intelligence (AI) Opportunities & The Returns That Lie Ahead! - Major Drivers

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) Q1 2024 earnings presented several key details about the firm's current market standing and...

Baptista Research

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