Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with <strong>Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. </strong>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer <strong>bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.</li>
<li>FIIs' dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia's toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.</li>
<li>Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.</li>
</ul>


In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.
FIIs' dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia's toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.
Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.


Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 31st. The aggregated holding was USD1,429.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,180mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Delta Electronics, ASE Industrial, E.SUN Financial, Quanta Computer, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Delta Electronics, E.Sun Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 31st. The aggregated holding was USD1,429.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,180mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Delta Electronics, ASE Industrial, E.SUN Financial, Quanta Computer, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Delta Electronics, E.Sun Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 31st): TSMC, Delta Electronics, ASE Industrial, E.SUN Financial

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  </li>
<li>Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
<li>With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices</li>
</ul>


4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  
Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.
With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 31st): TSMC, Delta Electronics, ASE Industrial, E.SUN Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Delta Electronics (2308 TT), ASE...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

​FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 31st): TSMC, Delta Electronics, ASE Industrial, E.SUN Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Delta Electronics (2308 TT), ASE...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

​4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...