Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.</li>
<li>Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.</li>
</ul>


Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.


Global Autos:  Falling Investor Confidence

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. 
NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. 


2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.</li>
<li>Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.</li>
<li>If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.</li>
</ul>


Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.
Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.
If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.


United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17</li>
<li>Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong </li>
<li>Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. </li>
</ul>


TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17
Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong 
Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

​UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

​TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...