Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%</li>
<li>The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.</li>
<li>Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).</li>
</ul>


Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%
The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.
Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).


Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> has increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.</li>
<li>A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week. </li>
<li>Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
</ul>



KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week. 
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

<ul>
<li><span>KKR has <a href="https://media.kkr.com/news-details?news_id=149f73ae-32ba-49df-869e-7eaa102b72a0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extended</a> the close date of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> second tender offer period from 9 to 24 January. All other terms remain unchanged. </span></li>
<li>KKR unconvincingly tries to criticize the Bain offer and unsurprisingly believes there will not be a tender offer by Bain that investors can tender into. </li>
<li>Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The final winning offer could be around JPY10,000. </li>
</ul>


KKR has extended the close date of the Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) second tender offer period from 9 to 24 January. All other terms remain unchanged. 
KKR unconvincingly tries to criticize the Bain offer and unsurprisingly believes there will not be a tender offer by Bain that investors can tender into. 
Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The final winning offer could be around JPY10,000. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

<ul>
<li>The battle for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc. (9749 JP)</a> took an unexpected turn. Bain <a href="https://www.baincapital.co.jp/sites/default/files/2024-12/BCP_9749_11122024-jp1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its offer</a> to JPY9,600, a 1.6% premium to KKR’s JPY9,451 second tender offer. </li>
<li>Bain has introduced a minimum number of shares to be purchased criterion. Bain’s offer is structured to address most but not all of the special committee’s reasons for opposition.</li>
<li>The Board’s first reaction will be to ask KKR, its preferred bidder, to bump. Given the amount of time and effort KKR has put into this bid, it will bump. </li>
</ul>


The battle for Fuji Soft Inc. (9749 JP) took an unexpected turn. Bain revised its offer to JPY9,600, a 1.6% premium to KKR’s JPY9,451 second tender offer. 
Bain has introduced a minimum number of shares to be purchased criterion. Bain’s offer is structured to address most but not all of the special committee’s reasons for opposition.
The Board’s first reaction will be to ask KKR, its preferred bidder, to bump. Given the amount of time and effort KKR has put into this bid, it will bump. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain Can’t Take No for an Answer and Returns with a JPY9,600 Offer

Japan

TIS Inc is established through reorganization.  The Company provides network solutions and system integration services.  IT Holdings also engages in development, implementation, and maintenance of application software besides selling computer and computer peripheral equipment.

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TIS (3626 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...

Mark Chadwick

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

The bump was required. Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The...

Arun George

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain Can’t Take No for an Answer and Returns with a JPY9,600 Offer

Despite repeated stonewalling, Bain returns with a revised offer. The Board’s first reaction will be to ask KKR, its preferred bidder, to bump. KKR...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

​Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...

Mark Chadwick

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

The bump was required. Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The...

Arun George

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain Can’t Take No for an Answer and Returns with a JPY9,600 Offer

Despite repeated stonewalling, Bain returns with a revised offer. The Board’s first reaction will be to ask KKR, its preferred bidder, to bump. KKR...

Arun George

Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...