US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.</li>
<li>Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.</li>
<li>Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitazato-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45255:1" rel="noopener">Kitazato (368A JP)</a> is forecasted to fail the market cap and float cap threshold of Global-F SmallCap even with the full exercise of the greenshoe.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitazato-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45255:1" rel="noopener">Kitazato (368A JP)</a> is expected to come close but miss the float cap threshold of Global-M SmallCap.</li>
<li>The full exercise of the greenshoe increases the probability of inclusion in Global-M SmallCap at the November 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



Kitazato (368A JP) is forecasted to fail the market cap and float cap threshold of Global-F SmallCap even with the full exercise of the greenshoe.

Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to come close but miss the float cap threshold of Global-M SmallCap.
The full exercise of the greenshoe increases the probability of inclusion in Global-M SmallCap at the November 2025 review.


Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>TOPIX Inclusions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> took place at the end of April 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-concept-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34323:1" rel="noopener">Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP)</a> continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) took place at the end of April 2025.

Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&amp;A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.</li>
<li>This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.</li>
<li>Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of &gt;2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with &gt;US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.</li>
</ul>


This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&amp;A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of &gt;2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with &gt;US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.


The End-April TOPIX Rebalance - US$2.1bn a Side

Japan

Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. operates railway businesses. The Company conducts passenger rail transportation, urban design and lifestyle creation, real estate, and other projects. Tokyo Metro serves customers in Japan.

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Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

Inclusion in Global-M remains anticipated at the August 2025 review. Market cap is close to the SmallCap - Standard threshold but estimated to be...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains

Kitazato (368A JP) currently falls short of the float cap thresholds for Global indices, but with full greenshoe exercise, it stands a chance of...

Dimitris Ioannidis

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)

Tokyo Metro performed exactly as we expected before and after the 0.75X TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal announcement in early-April 2025. The flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance - US$2.1bn a Side

There is US$2bn a side to trade on 28 April at the close for a variety of reasons. It is a big month of events with a long list of trades which...

Travis Lundy

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