Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>The TOPIX Inclusions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.</li>
<li>Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

<ul>
<li>In the TOPIX Index, some "low liquidity" names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.</li>
<li>These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.</li>
<li>The results for April 2025 liquidity factor removal have been confirmed and we achieved very high hit rates for our High and Medium conviction baskets.</li>
</ul>


In the TOPIX Index, some "low liquidity" names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
The results for April 2025 liquidity factor removal have been confirmed and we achieved very high hit rates for our High and Medium conviction baskets.


TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!

<ul>
<li>In the TOPIX Index, some "low liquidity" names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.</li>
<li>These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2025 and their flow implications.</li>
</ul>


In the TOPIX Index, some "low liquidity" names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2025 and their flow implications.


TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For "The Big April Basket" 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!


The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.</li>
<li>With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.

TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

Japan

Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. operates railway businesses. The Company conducts passenger rail transportation, urban design and lifestyle creation, real estate, and other projects. Tokyo Metro serves customers in Japan.

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Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

There are currently 91 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 127 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!

Our LONG Tokyo Metro outperformed the TOPIX Index by 22% from 27th January 2025 to 7th April 2025 and ended up as one of the best performing names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For "The Big April Basket" 2025

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor (0.75x) changes for April 2025 will be officially announced after the close today (7th April 2025) and the actual index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

History shows (see Discussion Point) that "the right trade" is to be outright long TOPIX from today at the close to sell Friday (dividend ex-date)...

Travis Lundy

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals starts trading today. The grey market is reportedly trading at JPY 790/share, down 3.66% from the IPO price. With a large...

Brian Freitas

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