Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.</li>
<li>What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.</li>
<li>Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. </li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ) approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.
What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.
Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. 


Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY</li>
<li>If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery </li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery 


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

The Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros is Dead. Long live the Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros. Prosus is an Accretion Engine. Know it. Use it.

Travis Lundy

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

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