Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Travelers increased by 75% YoY and traveling spending increased by 144% YoY in China in 9M2023.</li>
<li>TCOM’s total revenue rose by 31% in 3Q23 over 3Q19 before COVID.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 33% and a price target of US$43.70.</li>
</ul>


Travelers increased by 75% YoY and traveling spending increased by 144% YoY in China in 9M2023.
TCOM’s total revenue rose by 31% in 3Q23 over 3Q19 before COVID.
We conclude an upside of 33% and a price target of US$43.70.


Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus expectation, and was 31% higher than 3Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.4bn, 6% better than our forecast, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM driven by better-than-expected operating leverage, and more efficient-than-expected sales and marketing spend.</li><li>Recovery of outbound travel business on QTD basis in 4Q23 is slightly slower than our previous expectation owing to the slower-than-expected recovery in international flights in the short term, while TCOM’s outbound travel business is on track to see full recovery in 2024 given that consumer demand remains healthy. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus expectation, and was 31% higher than 3Q19 level.Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.4bn, 6% better than our forecast, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM driven by better-than-expected operating leverage, and more efficient-than-expected sales and marketing spend.Recovery of outbound travel business on QTD basis in 4Q23 is slightly slower than our previous expectation owing to the slower-than-expected recovery in international flights in the short term, while TCOM’s outbound travel business is on track to see full recovery in 2024 given that consumer demand remains healthy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Release of Pent-Up Demand as Expected

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level

Travelers increased by 75% YoY and traveling spending increased by 144% YoY in China in 9M2023. TCOM’s total revenue rose by 31% in 3Q23 over 3Q19...

Ming Lu

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Release of Pent-Up Demand as Expected

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

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