Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices</li>
<li>The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)</li>
<li>A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices
The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)
A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID


Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

<ul>
<li>Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months</li>
<li>Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel</li>
<li>Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us</li>
</ul>


Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months
Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel
Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand  (December 2025)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (18 Nov) 3Q25 results: total revenue was RMB18.4bn, up 15.5% YoY, 1% better than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB6.1bn, 5/6% better than our estimates and consensus, thanks to better-than-expected operating leverage.</li><li>Non-GAAP NP of RMB19.2bn was significantly ahead of consensus at RMB5.6bn, driven by one-off gains from the sale of partial stake in MakeMyTrip. TCOM’s overseas expansion is on track, with balanced investment and revenue growth trajectory, and this should bring long-term value to TCOM, in our view.</li><li>To account for more robust-than-expected international business revenue growth and better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement of domestic and outbound business, we lift 25-27E revenue forecasts by 1-5%, and operating profit forecasts by 0-5%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (18 Nov) 3Q25 results: total revenue was RMB18.4bn, up 15.5% YoY, 1% better than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB6.1bn, 5/6% better than our estimates and consensus, thanks to better-than-expected operating leverage.Non-GAAP NP of RMB19.2bn was significantly ahead of consensus at RMB5.6bn, driven by one-off gains from the sale of partial stake in MakeMyTrip. TCOM’s overseas expansion is on track, with balanced investment and revenue growth trajectory, and this should bring long-term value to TCOM, in our view.To account for more robust-than-expected international business revenue growth and better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement of domestic and outbound business, we lift 25-27E revenue forecasts by 1-5%, and operating profit forecasts by 0-5%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - 3Q Results Beat; Travel Demand Remains Solid

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation commission up by 12% YoY.</li>
<li>Overseas travel continued to recover and consumption shrink does not impact TCOM much.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 29% for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation commission up by 12% YoY.
Overseas travel continued to recover and consumption shrink does not impact TCOM much.
We believe the stock has an upside of 29% for the next twelve months.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 16%

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com</li>
<li>But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive


Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

News of an antitrust investigation into Trip.com sent its shares plummeting last week. The company could face fines, changes to existing practices,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US) - 3Q Results Beat; Travel Demand Remains Solid

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (18 Nov) 3Q25 results: total revenue was RMB18.4bn, up 15.5% YoY, 1% better than both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 16%

In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation up by 12% YoY. Overseas travel continued to recover...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

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