Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San now owns far more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.</li>
<li>The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>. It is also informative for what isn't present.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will continue.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-San now owns far more in Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.
The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in L'Occitane (973 HK). It is also informative for what isn't present.

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption</li>
<li>However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;</li>
<li>Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.</li>
</ul>


In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption
However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;
Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, aided by better-than-expected revenue generation from both accommodation reservation and Others segments.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.8bn, better than our forecast/consensus at RMB3.2/3.1bn, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM aided by better-thanexpected scale effect, and better-than-expected marketing spend driven by a stringent ROI target.</li><li>Although the strong release of pent-up demand in travel industry has been largely priced in, we suggest investors look beyond pent-up demand to TCOM’s globalization potential. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, aided by better-than-expected revenue generation from both accommodation reservation and Others segments.Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.8bn, better than our forecast/consensus at RMB3.2/3.1bn, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM aided by better-thanexpected scale effect, and better-than-expected marketing spend driven by a stringent ROI target.Although the strong release of pent-up demand in travel industry has been largely priced in, we suggest investors look beyond pent-up demand to TCOM’s globalization potential. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY with all business booming.</li>
<li>China and Trip achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and the Labor Day Holidays.</li>
<li>However, the stock price has risen 37% in the past three months.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY with all business booming.
China and Trip achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and the Labor Day Holidays.
However, the stock price has risen 37% in the past three months.


Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment late last week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will  continue. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>/Prosus/Tencent are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment late last week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will  continue. 
Preceding my comments on Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus/Tencent are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Bloisi's Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY. China achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and Labor Day Holidays. However, the stock price...

Ming Lu

StubWorld: Bloisi's Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade

For long-onlies, replace your Tencent with Prosus; or specifically, ~80% of your Tencent position with Prosus. For rel-value players, ~80% of the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

​Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY. China achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and Labor Day Holidays. However, the stock price...

Ming Lu

StubWorld: Bloisi's Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade

For long-onlies, replace your Tencent with Prosus; or specifically, ~80% of your Tencent position with Prosus. For rel-value players, ~80% of the...

David Blennerhassett

Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...