Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asian rerating is over. A new chapter has commenced. Asian earnings estimate upgrades are in full swing and so is an earnings-driven rally, particularly in a few markets and sectors.</li>
<li>Korea is the most notable earnings-driven market. The market has appreciated 12.4% since late October and its forward PE has declined 17%. Hong Kong and Indonesia also fit the bill.</li>
<li>Nine market-sectors have the strongest EPS revisions and strongest earnings growth forecasts. HK materials, Korean technology and utilities, Taiwan technology, Indonesian materials, Thai technology and communications and Malaysia tech services.</li>
</ul>


Asian rerating is over. A new chapter has commenced. Asian earnings estimate upgrades are in full swing and so is an earnings-driven rally, particularly in a few markets and sectors.
Korea is the most notable earnings-driven market. The market has appreciated 12.4% since late October and its forward PE has declined 17%. Hong Kong and Indonesia also fit the bill.
Nine market-sectors have the strongest EPS revisions and strongest earnings growth forecasts. HK materials, Korean technology and utilities, Taiwan technology, Indonesian materials, Thai technology and communications and Malaysia tech services.


Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the <em>bubble </em>in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.</li>
<li>Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.</li>
</ul>


China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.


Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

​Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

​Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

​Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

​Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...