Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Twitter suddenly decided to accept Elon Musk’s hostile $54.20 bid (no one else was even interested).</li>
<li>
Now they have to sell billions in pricey &amp; yet likely still underpriced bonds vs Twitter's already weak ops &amp; truly ugly pro forma credit quality &amp; dicey prospects.</li>
<li>Does that make Elon a winner or a bagholder? And will he stay or will he go? We're going to find out.</li>
</ul>



Twitter suddenly decided to accept Elon Musk’s hostile $54.20 bid (no one else was even interested).

Now they have to sell billions in pricey &amp; yet likely still underpriced bonds vs Twitter's already weak ops &amp; truly ugly pro forma credit quality &amp; dicey prospects.
Does that make Elon a winner or a bagholder? And will he stay or will he go? We're going to find out.


Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>They make steel/plastic/fibre/paper based industrial packaging. 10-15% ROIC including intangibles, and nearly 20% ROIC on tangible assets.</li><li>Earnings this year will only be a tad bit higher than in 2019 (before synergies of their early 2019 Caraustar acquisition were realized), so it is not a Covid winner.</li><li>Yet it trades at a historically low PE multiple</li></ul>

They make steel/plastic/fibre/paper based industrial packaging. 10-15% ROIC including intangibles, and nearly 20% ROIC on tangible assets.Earnings this year will only be a tad bit higher than in 2019 (before synergies of their early 2019 Caraustar acquisition were realized), so it is not a Covid winner.Yet it trades at a historically low PE multiple

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.</li>
<li>Post-Deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> will look more like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a>. More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. </li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. 

Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.
Post-Deal, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) will look more like Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP). More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

<ul>
<li>
Tesla should probably thank its China operations for another record quarter as strong pricing and lag in hits from cost inflation made profits soar. </li>
<li>
Next quarter will be tougher as China's business conditions rapidly deteriorate amid the worst Covid surge in two years.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk is on the hunt for cash to buy Twitter.
</li>
</ul>



Tesla should probably thank its China operations for another record quarter as strong pricing and lag in hits from cost inflation made profits soar. 

Next quarter will be tougher as China's business conditions rapidly deteriorate amid the worst Covid surge in two years.
Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk is on the hunt for cash to buy Twitter.



Tesla Posted Strong Q1 Results (Thanks to China)/Elon Is Looking For Other People's Money

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q1 operating income beat consensus estimates by 38% (ours by 26%), while GAAP net income came in 42% above consensus (36% above ours). </li>
<li>The highly focused automotive gross margin (Ex-ZEV credits) came to 30% versus consensus estimates of 27.8% and ours of 27.5%. Costs were booked in R&amp;D rather than COGS.</li>
<li>The results were solid, but the CFO cautioned on Q2 headwinds. Tesla was up by 5.6% in the after hours on these results, ignoring Tesla's cautious Q2 outlook. </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q1 operating income beat consensus estimates by 38% (ours by 26%), while GAAP net income came in 42% above consensus (36% above ours). 
The highly focused automotive gross margin (Ex-ZEV credits) came to 30% versus consensus estimates of 27.8% and ours of 27.5%. Costs were booked in R&amp;D rather than COGS.
The results were solid, but the CFO cautioned on Q2 headwinds. Tesla was up by 5.6% in the after hours on these results, ignoring Tesla's cautious Q2 outlook. 


Tesla Q1 Results: Strong Beat But Cautious Outlook

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Twitter: Take the Money And Run

Twitter has accepted Elon Musk’s hostile $54.20 bid. Now they have to sell billions in pricey & yet likely still underpriced bonds vs already weak...

Vicki Bryan

Greif B Shares - Boring and Reliable

They make steel/plastic/fibre/paper based industrial packaging. 10-15% ROIC including intangibles, and nearly 20% ROIC on tangible assets.

Turtles all the way down

Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Tesla Posted Strong Q1 Results (Thanks to China)/Elon Is Looking For Other People's Money

Tesla should thank its China ops for another record quarter as strong pricing and lag in hits from cost inflation made profits soar. Next quarter...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Q1 Results: Strong Beat But Cautious Outlook

Tesla's Q1 results blow away estimates due to one-off booking of regulatory credits & lower SG&A; CFO warns of headwinds in Q2.

SC Capital

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