Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<p>Latin American currencies have underperformed against the broad EM complex since the start of the pandemic. In this note, we address the question that if we are entering a low-volatility period, could it be time for LatAm currencies to make up for some of their underperformance?</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

Latin American currencies have underperformed against the broad EM complex since the start of the pandemic. In this note, we address the question that if we are entering a low-volatility period, could it be time for LatAm currencies to make up for some of their underperformance?Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is It Time for Latin American Currencies to Turn Around?

<p>In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make on a weekly basis and discuss those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18 trade recommendations so far, of which 13 are in the money.</p>

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make on a weekly basis and discuss those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18 trade recommendations so far, of which 13 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas Performance Summary – July 2021

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add back to USD longs and resume the rise targeting 94.</div><div></div><div>Timing risk: Pullback sequence should take the form of an elevated choppy pullback.</div><div></div><div>Next phase of the USD rise needs the 10yr to bottom near 1.37% support and start a fresh up cycle in yields.</div>

DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add back to USD longs and resume the rise targeting 94.Timing risk: Pullback sequence should take the form of an elevated choppy pullback.Next phase of the USD rise needs the 10yr to bottom near 1.37% support and start a fresh up cycle in yields.

<p>EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

<p>We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Is It Time for Latin American Currencies to Turn Around?

In this note, we address the question that if we are entering a low-volatility period, could it be time for LatAm currencies to make up for some of...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas Performance Summary – July 2021

We provide a performance update of all our trade recommendations along with discussing those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

USD Long Trim with Fresh Buy Levels

DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

With many EM central banks embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)