Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above oversold, with bullish divergence forming.  We don't think the decline is quite complete for two reasons:<ul>
<li>all of the daily momentum indicators made new lows in line with DXY at the late-January low, signalling that further lows are more-likely-than-not </li>
<li>that fits with the short-term wave count, which is missing a minor 5th wave.  </li>
</ul>We are therefore still…

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above oversold, with bullish divergence forming.  We don't think the decline is quite complete for two reasons:
all of the daily momentum indicators made new lows in line with DXY at the late-January low, signalling that further lows are more-likely-than-not 
that fits with the short-term wave count, which is missing a minor 5th wave.  
We are therefore still…

US Dollar: Final DXY Low Still Lies Ahead, but ...

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

USD Major Cycle Low in Sight

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD...

Thomas Schroeder

US Dollar: Final DXY Low Still Lies Ahead, but ...

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above...

Peter Beuttell

USD Short to Long Transition Cycle

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined....

Thomas Schroeder

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

DXY is missing a leg down. It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels...

Peter Beuttell

US Dollar: One Size Does Not Fit All

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of...

Chris Roberts

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