Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a breakout call in the TRY and EM FX to lead an EM Equity spiral.US 10yr yield bullish triangulation sets the tone for USD strength into year-end. A breakout will shift the dollar's momentum. A Q4 fade will sap needed energy from the USD.EM FX continues to show signs of a fresh break higher in the charts into what we envision as a final thrust for the greenback, setting the stage for a compelling USD peak in Asia and EM's and a cycle low in EM/Asian equities ahead of a Q4 recovery cycle with a tough environment in store for 2019 (DM pressure).USD/THB and NZD display early turn signals as pair shorts versus the USD or on the crosses. NZD favored over the AUD. We outlined a transition cycle.Euro exhibits a more bullish undertone on a revisit of the sub 1.15 area ahead of a 3-5 month Euro rally cycle.

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a breakout call in the TRY and EM FX to lead an EM Equity spiral.US 10yr yield bullish triangulation sets the tone for USD strength into year-end. A breakout will shift the dollar's momentum. A Q4 fade will sap needed energy from the USD.EM FX continues to show signs of a fresh break higher in the charts into what we envision as a final thrust for the greenback, setting the stage for a compelling USD peak in Asia and EM's and a cycle low in EM/Asian equities ahead of a Q4 recovery cycle with a tough environment in store for 2019 (DM pressure).USD/THB and NZD display early turn signals as pair shorts versus the USD or on the crosses. NZD favored over the AUD. We outlined a transition cycle.Euro exhibits a more bullish undertone on a revisit of the sub 1.15 area ahead of a 3-5 month Euro rally cycle.

Dollar's Fuel and Struggle in Asia - These Are the Currencies to Short into the Next USD Push

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>EM Capital outflows accelerate - China loses US$134.8 bn YTD; Brazil US$24.4 bn YTD only India US$49.4 bn YTD sees large inflows</li>
<li>Every EM Crisis first-and-foremost a currency crisis</li>
<li>EM fundaments generally good. Problem strong US dollar</li>
<li>Dollar supply shrinking from both Fed tightening and collapse in Eurodollar wholesale funding</li>
<li>Could get worse. DXY up 5-10% next 12 months. Part of US dollar Currency War?</li>
</ul>


EM Capital outflows accelerate - China loses US$134.8 bn YTD; Brazil US$24.4 bn YTD only India US$49.4 bn YTD sees large inflows
Every EM Crisis first-and-foremost a currency crisis
EM fundaments generally good. Problem strong US dollar
Dollar supply shrinking from both Fed tightening and collapse in Eurodollar wholesale funding
Could get worse. DXY up 5-10% next 12 months. Part of US dollar Currency War?


The Giant Sucking Sound – Emerging Market Capital Flows

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/057/903/original/CP%20header.jpg?1531720935" data-smartkarma-image-id="57903"></figure>The following webcast outlined our USD bull positioning and rally targets into a USD peak cycle with a focus on Turkish Lira fresh weakness adding fuel to USD strength in Asia as we moving into our slated July USD peak zone that will align with equity lows in Asia to set up an inflection. TRY plays a key role as does the USD/JPY breakout above 111 (resuming the macro bull cycle). We also outline pivot zones and the USD/CNH target.To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/DjBbRAfBpP" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/DjBbRAfBpP</a>…

The following webcast outlined our USD bull positioning and rally targets into a USD peak cycle with a focus on Turkish Lira fresh weakness adding fuel to USD strength in Asia as we moving into our slated July USD peak zone that will align with equity lows in Asia to set up an inflection. TRY plays a key role as does the USD/JPY breakout above 111 (resuming the macro bull cycle). We also outline pivot zones and the USD/CNH target.To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/DjBbRAfBpP…

We have been warning of a USD domino breakout cycle that started with the TRY breakout and then BRL triangle breakout that would bleed into Asian FX. DXY clearing 92 is the next pressure point that would not only open up the USD bull cycle versus the majors but will seeing Asian FX come under increasing pressure.The DXY daily chart has registered a breakout at 90.50 that was used to step up USD long positioning. We were already long the USD vs EM FX and parts of Asia ahead of this breakout.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/051/047/original/DXY%20d.png?1525168789" data-smartkarma-image-id="51047"></figure>DXY…

We have been warning of a USD domino breakout cycle that started with the TRY breakout and then BRL triangle breakout that would bleed into Asian FX. DXY clearing 92 is the next pressure point that would not only open up the USD bull cycle versus the majors but will seeing Asian FX come under increasing pressure.The DXY daily chart has registered a breakout at 90.50 that was used to step up USD long positioning. We were already long the USD vs EM FX and parts of Asia ahead of this breakout.DXY…

Asian FX Pressures Mount Above DXY 92 - Euro Big Breakdown

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: <ul><li>The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but there is still conflict in the signals. It has produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and its initial rally off the recent low was a 5-waver. However, that is not automatically bullish, and there was almost no bullish divergence in the daily indicators at the low, although the medium-term indicators have…</li></ul>

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but there is still conflict in the signals. It has produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and its initial rally off the recent low was a 5-waver. However, that is not automatically bullish, and there was almost no bullish divergence in the daily indicators at the low, although the medium-term indicators have…

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Dollar's Fuel and Struggle in Asia - These Are the Currencies to Short into the Next USD Push

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a...

Thomas Schroeder

The Giant Sucking Sound – Emerging Market Capital Flows

EM Capital outflows accelerate - China loses US$134.8 bn YTD; Brazil US$24.4 bn YTD only India US$49.4 bn YTD sees large inflows Every EM Crisis...

Michael J. Howell

TRY Fuel for USD Strength in Asia

The following webcast outlined our USD bull positioning and rally targets into a USD peak cycle with a focus on Turkish Lira fresh weakness adding...

Thomas Schroeder

Asian FX Pressures Mount Above DXY 92 - Euro Big Breakdown

We have been warning of a USD domino breakout cycle that started with the TRY breakout and then BRL triangle breakout that would bleed into Asian...

Thomas Schroeder

US Dollar: Monthly Currency Focus

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but...

Peter Beuttell

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)