Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

As the market volatility picks up again, we revisit our analysis where we compared the current reflationary episode with the Taper Tantrum of 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

As the market volatility picks up again, we revisit our analysis where we compared the current reflationary episode with the Taper Tantrum of 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Revisiting Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare

In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect which emerging countries are intervening more than others.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect which emerging countries are intervening more than others.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Which Countries Are Intervening the Most?

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Colombian peso (COP) relative to the rally in oil prices.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Colombian peso (COP) relative to the rally in oil prices.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we look at how the intra-regional correlations among EM currencies have evolved and their implications.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we look at how the intra-regional correlations among EM currencies have evolved and their implications.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Digging Deeper into Intra-Regional Correlations

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Revisiting Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare

In this note, we revisit our analysis of the current reflationary episode vs the 2013 Taper Tantrum. Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Countries Are Intervening the Most?

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Oil Currencies Vs Oil

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we discuss the underperformance of Russian...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Digging Deeper into Intra-Regional Correlations

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we look at the evolution of intra-regional...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

USD is a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar will shift gears (more bullish) after a...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)