Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.</li><li>Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.</li><li>Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold continues to make new highs to little, if any fanfare</li>
<li>Traditional drivers of gold like lower real rates and a weaker dollar yet to come into play</li>
<li>What does this mean for the precious metals mining sector and is it time to buy?</li>
</ul>


Gold continues to make new highs to little, if any fanfare
Traditional drivers of gold like lower real rates and a weaker dollar yet to come into play
What does this mean for the precious metals mining sector and is it time to buy?


What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend, Macro Voices

Macro Voices

Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility</li>
<li>Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook</li>
<li>With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility
Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook
With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity,...

Steno Research

What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...

Rikki Malik

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity,...

Steno Research

What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

​Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...

Rikki Malik

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...