Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.</li><li>It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.</li><li>Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls showed 199k jobs added, higher than October and above expectations; Unemployment fell to 3.7% but wage growth strong at 4% YoY.</li>
<li>Earlier this week, JOLTs survey showed job opening slide 6.7% to 8.73 million, lowest in 2.5 years with jobs declining across industries.</li>
<li>Job market observed to be loosening and on-track to achieving soft-landing. going forward, it’s vital to watch for job losses.</li>
</ul>


Nonfarm payrolls showed 199k jobs added, higher than October and above expectations; Unemployment fell to 3.7% but wage growth strong at 4% YoY.
Earlier this week, JOLTs survey showed job opening slide 6.7% to 8.73 million, lowest in 2.5 years with jobs declining across industries.
Job market observed to be loosening and on-track to achieving soft-landing. going forward, it’s vital to watch for job losses.


Mint Macro Roundup: Dissecting The Recent Jobs Data

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

<ul>
<li>DXY is up 1% in Dec after a 3.7% decline in Nov. USD strengthening indicates portfolio positioning &amp; dollar hedging going into final policy meetings for the year.</li>
<li>The US Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Markets anticipate rate cuts as early as March 2024. USD will remain strong backed by bullish equities &amp; policy divergence.</li>
<li>Fed officials signal peak rates for now but remain hawkish with clear warnings against premature rate cut bets by markets.  </li>
</ul>


DXY is up 1% in Dec after a 3.7% decline in Nov. USD strengthening indicates portfolio positioning &amp; dollar hedging going into final policy meetings for the year.
The US Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Markets anticipate rate cuts as early as March 2024. USD will remain strong backed by bullish equities &amp; policy divergence.
Fed officials signal peak rates for now but remain hawkish with clear warnings against premature rate cut bets by markets.  


The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research. It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: Dissecting The Recent Jobs Data

November nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with 199k jobs added, pushing unemployment down to 3.7%. Wage growth strong at 4% YoY. Bonds and...

Mint Finance

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research. It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: Dissecting The Recent Jobs Data

​November nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with 199k jobs added, pushing unemployment down to 3.7%. Wage growth strong at 4% YoY. Bonds and...

Mint Finance

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

​The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...

Mint Finance

November nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with 199k jobs added, pushing unemployment down to 3.7%. Wage growth strong at 4% YoY. Bonds and...

The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...