Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.</li><li>Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.</li><li>Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is narrowly mixed against the major currencies in calm trade.</li><li>Global stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.</li><li>US 10Y bond yields fell some 10bps yesterday, adding to pressure on the USD broadly. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is narrowly mixed against the major currencies in calm trade.Global stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.US 10Y bond yields fell some 10bps yesterday, adding to pressure on the USD broadly. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily – USD Mixed but Lower Yields Weigh

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.</li><li>This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.</li><li>The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Everything is bottoming! Global Liquidity, stock markets, bond term premia, the World economy and even inflation pressures</li>
<li>We remain upbeat towards risk assets , but must acknowledge that the big gains are likely over for a while given gathering duration tensions in bond markets</li>
<li>The Global Liquidity cycle and asset allocation are unfolding on track in 2023. It is leading the World economy and currently sit in its Rebound investment phase</li>
</ul>


Everything is bottoming! Global Liquidity, stock markets, bond term premia, the World economy and even inflation pressures
We remain upbeat towards risk assets , but must acknowledge that the big gains are likely over for a while given gathering duration tensions in bond markets
The Global Liquidity cycle and asset allocation are unfolding on track in 2023. It is leading the World economy and currently sit in its Rebound investment phase


Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.

Scotiabank

FX Daily – USD Mixed but Lower Yields Weigh

lobal stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

We talk about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly...

Steno Research

Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?

Understanding the Global Liquidity Cycle has proved valuable over the past few years. Reconsider this report which explains our asset allocation...

Michael J. Howell

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