Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Main points: Fed is riding a blind horse by letting the market dictate policy as we enter Q1 and we think that the cumulative effect of the great tightening along with the pending lags won’t be undone by the temporary easing of Financial Conditions</li><li>Rates will struggle to keep up at these levels as the disinflation (also) has a tightening component to it if rates don’t follow suit</li><li>Current labour market easing we have seen since peak is still consistent with usual recessionary patterns but is unlike to evolve in a linear manner from here.</li></ul>

Main points: Fed is riding a blind horse by letting the market dictate policy as we enter Q1 and we think that the cumulative effect of the great tightening along with the pending lags won’t be undone by the temporary easing of Financial ConditionsRates will struggle to keep up at these levels as the disinflation (also) has a tightening component to it if rates don’t follow suitCurrent labour market easing we have seen since peak is still consistent with usual recessionary patterns but is unlike to evolve in a linear manner from here.

Out of the Box #24 : Too Little Too Late Powell?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around 1.0960 resistance earlier in the session and drifted off its best levels.</li><li>The JPY is the topperforming currency among the core majors on the day, racking up a 0.5% gain and rising to a two-month high.</li><li>Growing conviction that the Fed rate tightening cycle is complete, and that the next move from the Fed will be a cut, is supporting a rebound in the very depressed JPY. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around 1.0960 resistance earlier in the session and drifted off its best levels.The JPY is the topperforming currency among the core majors on the day, racking up a 0.5% gain and rising to a two-month high.Growing conviction that the Fed rate tightening cycle is complete, and that the next move from the Fed will be a cut, is supporting a rebound in the very depressed JPY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Losses May Moderate in Short Term

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.</li><li>Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.</li><li>That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.</li><li>First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.</li><li>ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.</li></ul>

Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Out of the Box #24 : Too Little Too Late Powell?

We have been rather vocal about how we find that the odds of a hike are perhaps a bit higher than what the market is willing to accept at this point.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Losses May Moderate in Short Term

The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Retains a Soft Undertone

Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the...

Scotiabank

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management as the seasonal...

Steno Research

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