Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>DXY is up 1% in Dec after a 3.7% decline in Nov. USD strengthening indicates portfolio positioning &amp; dollar hedging going into final policy meetings for the year.</li>
<li>The US Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Markets anticipate rate cuts as early as March 2024. USD will remain strong backed by bullish equities &amp; policy divergence.</li>
<li>Fed officials signal peak rates for now but remain hawkish with clear warnings against premature rate cut bets by markets.  </li>
</ul>


DXY is up 1% in Dec after a 3.7% decline in Nov. USD strengthening indicates portfolio positioning &amp; dollar hedging going into final policy meetings for the year.
The US Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Markets anticipate rate cuts as early as March 2024. USD will remain strong backed by bullish equities &amp; policy divergence.
Fed officials signal peak rates for now but remain hawkish with clear warnings against premature rate cut bets by markets.  


The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.</li><li>While the market has factored in a faster rate cut in 2024, the upcoming Dot Plot release will determine the market's future direction.</li><li>On the domestic front, inflation saw some acceleration, with chili prices remaining a primary contributor.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.While the market has factored in a faster rate cut in 2024, the upcoming Dot Plot release will determine the market's future direction.On the domestic front, inflation saw some acceleration, with chili prices remaining a primary contributor.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: Anticipation of Accelerated Rate Cuts

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.</li><li>FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.</li><li>Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...

Mint Finance

Macro Strategy: Anticipation of Accelerated Rate Cuts

Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.

BRI Danareksa Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed...

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

The Dollar Smile Theory Explains USD Strength Heading Into Final Central Bank Meetings For 2023

​The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...

Mint Finance

Macro Strategy: Anticipation of Accelerated Rate Cuts

Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.

BRI Danareksa Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed...

Scotiabank

The Dollar rebounded after a decline in November, ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets expect rates have peaked, the dollar may remain strong due to...