Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.</li><li>The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.</li><li>The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?</li>
<li>More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength</li>
<li>We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?
More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength
We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.


Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.</li><li>We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.</li><li>Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.</li></ul>

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentimentOPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil? More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD...

Steno Research

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound. We aim to cover all asset classes,...

Steno Research

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