Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmly, but a little off its best levels, ahead of this morning’s data releases.</li><li>Stocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.</li><li>Bonds are little changed, however, and crude oil has drifted a bit while G-10 commodity FX is outperforming, if only very modestly, so the risk off narrative does not fully explain intraday developments on the face of it.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmly, but a little off its best levels, ahead of this morning’s data releases.Stocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.Bonds are little changed, however, and crude oil has drifted a bit while G-10 commodity FX is outperforming, if only very modestly, so the risk off narrative does not fully explain intraday developments on the face of it.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Crypto Research and Data, Delphi Digital

Delphi Digital

Crypto Research and Data

Institutional-Grade Crypto Research & Data

Delphi Digital seeks to produce unbiased, actionable content for our clients on critical themes affecting digital assets and distributed ledger technology. Our team is committed to providing investors and institutions with key insights through a diverse suite of products including individual project analysis, bespoke research, and tailored consulting services.

Crypto

<ul>
<li>Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.</li>
<li>We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions</li>
<li>We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.</li>
</ul>


Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.


Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.</li><li>Major bond markets are adding to yesterday’s gains but US Treasurys are little changed.</li><li>The USD is trading mixed versus its major currency peers but has edged off the early session low atter European FX weakened on softer data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.Major bond markets are adding to yesterday’s gains but US Treasurys are little changed.The USD is trading mixed versus its major currency peers but has edged off the early session low atter European FX weakened on softer data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies as EUR Slips on Soft PMI Data

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of GDP Data

tocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.

Scotiabank

Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...

Delphi Digital

FX Daily - USD Steadies as EUR Slips on Soft PMI Data

FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.

Scotiabank

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of GDP Data

tocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.

Scotiabank

Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

​Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...

Delphi Digital

FX Daily - USD Steadies as EUR Slips on Soft PMI Data

FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.

Scotiabank

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...