Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.</li>
<li>It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.</li>
<li>An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.
It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.
An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.


Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a very well-timed rotational call.</li>
<li>The spread between Manufacturing and Services is highly cyclical and driven largely by relative changes in the cost and input structure of companies.</li>
<li>Our thesis is currently that the shift in input cost structures will start to favour Manufacturing over Services in coming quarters, also as goods prices have started to come down, making them relatively cheaper to services from a consumption standpoint.</li>
</ul>


We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a very well-timed rotational call.
The spread between Manufacturing and Services is highly cyclical and driven largely by relative changes in the cost and input structure of companies.
Our thesis is currently that the shift in input cost structures will start to favour Manufacturing over Services in coming quarters, also as goods prices have started to come down, making them relatively cheaper to services from a consumption standpoint.


Services Week: Will Services Now Turn into the Weakest Link of the Economy?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.</li>
<li>The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. </li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.
The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.
Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4. It leaves a smell of...

Steno Research

Services Week: Will Services Now Turn into the Weakest Link of the Economy?

We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a...

Steno Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed...

BRI Danareksa Research

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

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