Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading mixed to slightly firmer as markets show signs of calming after the volatility seen earlier in the week. Stocks are trading higher in Europe and rose modestly in Asia; US equity futures are positive.</li><li>US 10Y yields are holding near the recent high at 4.20% but intraday trends are largely tracking other major bond markets.</li><li>Commodities are mixed to firmer (crude and iron ore). The NOK and AUD are moderate outperformers on the day (reflecting gains in relevant commodities noted above). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The USD is trading mixed to slightly firmer as markets show signs of calming after the volatility seen earlier in the week. Stocks are trading higher in Europe and rose modestly in Asia; US equity futures are positive.US 10Y yields are holding near the recent high at 4.20% but intraday trends are largely tracking other major bond markets.Commodities are mixed to firmer (crude and iron ore). The NOK and AUD are moderate outperformers on the day (reflecting gains in relevant commodities noted above). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
<li>Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>The breakouts happened later that day on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">RSP</a> and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-russell-2000-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32964:1" rel="noopener">IWM</a> is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.


Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of Jobs Data

Commodities are mixed to firmer (crude and iron ore). The NOK and AUD are moderate outperformers on the day (reflecting gains in relevant...

Scotiabank

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout Above $199; Many Reasons to be Bullish; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Remain Below Resistance;...

Vermilion Research

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