Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.</li>
<li>USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.</li>
<li>A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.</li>
</ul>


DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.
USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.
A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.</li>
<li>The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. </li>
<li>Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.</li>
</ul>


I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.
The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. 
Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.


Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

<ul>
<li>I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.</li>
<li>On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.</li>
<li>Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.</li>
</ul>


I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.
On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.
Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.


Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy </li>
<li>World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?</li>
<li>The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity</li>
</ul>



 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy 
World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?
The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity


The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

<ul>
<li>The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.</li>
<li>For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.</li>
</ul>


The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.
I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.
For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.


Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

USD to Break Higher

DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.

Thomas Schroeder

Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Long speculative positions in the dollar are quite heavy implying that whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

Fed is serious 'behind the curve' on fighting inflation, but as worryingly it is also 'behind the crowd' in tightening liquidity. Expect a 'fudged'...

Michael J. Howell

Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

With the US dollar volatility rising, the environment for EM currencies has turned less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)